THE REALITY OF NIGERIA'S POPULATION BOOM
From time immemorial, humans live in a world of relentless change; large migration to (new) mega cities, vast slums, revenue, appetite for food and fuel, an unpredictable climate change, and extreme poverty among others. All these and many more are happening in a world whose population is already growing so fast. At present, the world's population is about 7.4 billion with an estimated increase to about 11 billion by the end of the century. Almost half of this estimated figure is expected to come from Africa, powered by Nigeria which is already home to about 185 million people – an astronomical increase from 55 million of the 1950s.
According to United Nation's demographic projection, by the year 2050, Nigeria's population will not just surpass that of United States as it will exceed 440 million (which is an enormous increase in a very short span of time) but will also leap and take over it position in the world ranking (from 7th - 3rd).
While some preferred not to think or talk about this boom, few care but often doubt it possibility; some caution sustainability; some are worried because they think, Nigeria with a land mass of 910,768 square kilometers (32nd in the world) cannot accommodate 440 million people. But the later, may sound archaic to the experts who are (probably only) worried on the Quality of life of the populace. They believe the boom will translate to more unemployment and poverty on the street of this great Nation.
It is important to note, that base on key factors like material wellbeing, health, family life, political stability and security, job security and gender equality among others, Nigeria was ranked 108 a decade ago by the Global Economist Intelligence Unit. One will also ware a smiling face when he recall that in spite of the present austerity solution’ to counter the long (unsolved) problems which drive it economy into disarray, Nigeria is still doing well in the global ranking of GDP where it occupied 23rd position on nominal basis and 24th on purchasing power parity (PPP). But the question still remained, could this boom be possible even with the global response - population ‘check’? What promise does the future hold for Nigeria and Nigerians?
There are two (best?) ways so far adopted by the world to 'check' a population; reducing infants and under 5 mortality rate and reduce the number of children a woman is likely to have during her lifetime (fertility). Family planning is the key word. But this is just one and the very first of its assumptions which is believed to be compatible with the attainment of economic and social goals of many nations.
Three U.S organizations; the Ford, Rockerfella Foundations and the Population Council, served as a catalyst in bringing together experts and government leaders from around the world at various international meetings in the 1950s and 1960s, to discuss the implication of rapid population growth and high fertility, exchange experiences with family planning programs practitioners and develop a consensus about what was needed for the future.
Nigeria, like most other countries in West Africa, is characterized by high fertility coupled with high maternal, infant and child mortality rate. In 1988, the National Population Commission (NPC) was established. In the same year, the Federal Government of Nigeria, under the Military Presidency of Gen. Ibrahim Babaginda, approved what it called ‘The National Policy on Population for Development, Unity, Progress and Self- Reliance’. Eight out of the ten specific objectives of the policy as noted in the Baseline Report (1994) were directed on how to reduce the level of fertility and one on how to reduce mortality rate.
The plan focuses more on the rural areas, part of which was to provide them with 50% basic social amenities by 1990 and 75% by the year 2000 in order to encourage or enhance and sustain self reliant development. This was not realized. For example, by the year 2000, only 67.6%, 69.96% and 48.94% of the population had access to safe water, electricity, and sanitation respectively.
Second among the three assumptions and objectives of family planning programs is that ‘couples in the developing countries want fewer children and are interested in regulating their fertility.’ But being a spell-bound audience will have you think why it is termed an “assumption” as well as an “objective.” Making contraception widely available is an effective way to meet couples’ need for fertility regulation and to help lower fertility level.
Family planning programs has on average recorded little success in Nigeria due to number of factors prominent of which are culture and religion. Notwithstanding, average fertility rate is no doubt declining to attain the world’s “standard” two children per family especially in the urban areas. In the urban areas, campaign such like the use of contraceptives is relatively high, marriage is systematically delayed on both genders.
But all these will not stop the population from growing. The story is different in the rural areas where early marriage is still in the rise, a significant number of the population in both rural and urban areas do not subscribe to the two child family policy and the government is showing no sign of making it and the use of contraceptives into law. At present, Nigeria population is 186 million and still counting. Even the 440 million projection was made on 3.59 birth per woman. The boom will definitely become a reality. There is no two ways about that. Population boom should rather be seen as a blessing than a curse. While human continue to play smart in implementing their plans, policy and sanctions, nature will also continue playing its role. It is left for the government to think of better means of sustaining it population than ‘forcing’ policies that hold empty promises.
Respecting people is one of the solutions to world's problems. One can little agree that everyone should get access to contraceptives (deliberate prevention of conception) everywhere, but not to force people in any way, shape or form. When you force people to use contraceptives, it will definitely backfire!
So long as mortality rate is in the increase, poor educational system persist and income distribution remain stagnant, the poorest people who form the largest portion of the population (mostly from rural areas) will never use contraceptives.
Some men however, not only in Nigeria, want to beat their chest and be proud 'I made so many children.' When men think that their pride is having 8 - 9 - 10 children without thinking of how well their children are doing, that's old fashion. Men have to think 'my pride is how well my children are doing, how happy they are in life and how productive I will make them. That's my pride.' And this should be the pride of the nation as well irrespective of number of children per woman at will.
***
Misbahu writes as a Statistician not a demographer. Most of the data presented are obtain from National Bureau of statistics, World Bank annual report, the United Nations and CIA World Factbook.
misbahulhamza@gmail.com
According to United Nation's demographic projection, by the year 2050, Nigeria's population will not just surpass that of United States as it will exceed 440 million (which is an enormous increase in a very short span of time) but will also leap and take over it position in the world ranking (from 7th - 3rd).
While some preferred not to think or talk about this boom, few care but often doubt it possibility; some caution sustainability; some are worried because they think, Nigeria with a land mass of 910,768 square kilometers (32nd in the world) cannot accommodate 440 million people. But the later, may sound archaic to the experts who are (probably only) worried on the Quality of life of the populace. They believe the boom will translate to more unemployment and poverty on the street of this great Nation.
It is important to note, that base on key factors like material wellbeing, health, family life, political stability and security, job security and gender equality among others, Nigeria was ranked 108 a decade ago by the Global Economist Intelligence Unit. One will also ware a smiling face when he recall that in spite of the present austerity solution’ to counter the long (unsolved) problems which drive it economy into disarray, Nigeria is still doing well in the global ranking of GDP where it occupied 23rd position on nominal basis and 24th on purchasing power parity (PPP). But the question still remained, could this boom be possible even with the global response - population ‘check’? What promise does the future hold for Nigeria and Nigerians?
There are two (best?) ways so far adopted by the world to 'check' a population; reducing infants and under 5 mortality rate and reduce the number of children a woman is likely to have during her lifetime (fertility). Family planning is the key word. But this is just one and the very first of its assumptions which is believed to be compatible with the attainment of economic and social goals of many nations.
Three U.S organizations; the Ford, Rockerfella Foundations and the Population Council, served as a catalyst in bringing together experts and government leaders from around the world at various international meetings in the 1950s and 1960s, to discuss the implication of rapid population growth and high fertility, exchange experiences with family planning programs practitioners and develop a consensus about what was needed for the future.
Nigeria, like most other countries in West Africa, is characterized by high fertility coupled with high maternal, infant and child mortality rate. In 1988, the National Population Commission (NPC) was established. In the same year, the Federal Government of Nigeria, under the Military Presidency of Gen. Ibrahim Babaginda, approved what it called ‘The National Policy on Population for Development, Unity, Progress and Self- Reliance’. Eight out of the ten specific objectives of the policy as noted in the Baseline Report (1994) were directed on how to reduce the level of fertility and one on how to reduce mortality rate.
The plan focuses more on the rural areas, part of which was to provide them with 50% basic social amenities by 1990 and 75% by the year 2000 in order to encourage or enhance and sustain self reliant development. This was not realized. For example, by the year 2000, only 67.6%, 69.96% and 48.94% of the population had access to safe water, electricity, and sanitation respectively.
Second among the three assumptions and objectives of family planning programs is that ‘couples in the developing countries want fewer children and are interested in regulating their fertility.’ But being a spell-bound audience will have you think why it is termed an “assumption” as well as an “objective.” Making contraception widely available is an effective way to meet couples’ need for fertility regulation and to help lower fertility level.
Family planning programs has on average recorded little success in Nigeria due to number of factors prominent of which are culture and religion. Notwithstanding, average fertility rate is no doubt declining to attain the world’s “standard” two children per family especially in the urban areas. In the urban areas, campaign such like the use of contraceptives is relatively high, marriage is systematically delayed on both genders.
But all these will not stop the population from growing. The story is different in the rural areas where early marriage is still in the rise, a significant number of the population in both rural and urban areas do not subscribe to the two child family policy and the government is showing no sign of making it and the use of contraceptives into law. At present, Nigeria population is 186 million and still counting. Even the 440 million projection was made on 3.59 birth per woman. The boom will definitely become a reality. There is no two ways about that. Population boom should rather be seen as a blessing than a curse. While human continue to play smart in implementing their plans, policy and sanctions, nature will also continue playing its role. It is left for the government to think of better means of sustaining it population than ‘forcing’ policies that hold empty promises.
Respecting people is one of the solutions to world's problems. One can little agree that everyone should get access to contraceptives (deliberate prevention of conception) everywhere, but not to force people in any way, shape or form. When you force people to use contraceptives, it will definitely backfire!
So long as mortality rate is in the increase, poor educational system persist and income distribution remain stagnant, the poorest people who form the largest portion of the population (mostly from rural areas) will never use contraceptives.
Some men however, not only in Nigeria, want to beat their chest and be proud 'I made so many children.' When men think that their pride is having 8 - 9 - 10 children without thinking of how well their children are doing, that's old fashion. Men have to think 'my pride is how well my children are doing, how happy they are in life and how productive I will make them. That's my pride.' And this should be the pride of the nation as well irrespective of number of children per woman at will.
***
Misbahu writes as a Statistician not a demographer. Most of the data presented are obtain from National Bureau of statistics, World Bank annual report, the United Nations and CIA World Factbook.
misbahulhamza@gmail.com
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